Which Technical Indicators to Use?
If "the trend is your friend," what happens when there is no trend? This is more than just a rhetorical question, since markets tend to move sideways much more frequently than they trend. For example, currency markets are particularly well known for long-term trends, which are in turn caused by long-term macro-economic trends, such as interest rate tightening or easing cycles. But even in currency markets, historical analysis reveals that trending periods only account for about 1/3 of price action over time, meaning that about two-thirds of the time there is no trend to catch.
By Brian Dolan
As published in TRADERS' Magazine July 2005
The Trend/No Trend Paradox
To make matters worse, many traders typically utilize only one or two technical indicators to identify market direction and trade-timing. This one-size-fits-all approach leaves them exposed to the trend/no-trend paradox – an indicator that works well in trending markets can give disastrous results in sideways markets and vice versa. As a result, individual traders frequently find themselves exiting positions too early and missing out on larger moves as a bigger trend unfolds. Conversely, traders may end up holding onto a short-term position for too long following a reversal, believing they are "with the trend," when no trend exists.
To avoid getting caught in the paradox, this article will suggest using several technical tools in conjunction to determine whether or not a trend is in place. This will in turn dictate which technical indicators are best used to gauge entry/exit points as well as provide some risk management guidance. Rather than setting forth a list of concrete trading rules, this article seeks to outline a dynamic approach to the use of technical analysis to avoid getting caught in the trend/no-trend paradox.
Trend-friendly Tools
The obvious starting point for this discussion is to define what is meant by a trend. In terms of technical analysis, a trend is a predictable price response at levels of support/resistance that change over time. For example, in an uptrend the defining feature is that prices rebound when they near support levels, ultimately establishing new highs. In a downtrend, the opposite is true – price increases will reverse as they near resistance levels, and new lows will be reached. This definition reveals the first of the tools used to identify whether a trend is in place or not – trendline analysis to establish support and resistance levels.
Trendline analysis is sometimes underestimated because it is perceived as overly subjective in nature. While this criticism has some truth, it overlooks the reality that trendlines help focus attention on the underlying price pattern, filtering out the noise of the market. For this reason, trendline analysis should be the first step in determining the existence of a trend. If trendline analysis does not reveal a discernible trend, it's probably because there isn't one. Trendline analysis will also help identify price formations that have their own predictive significance.
Trendline analysis is best employed starting with longer time frames (daily and weekly charts) first and then carrying them forward into shorter timeframes (hourly and 4-hourly) where shorter-term levels of support and resistance can then be identified. This approach has the advantage of highlighting the most significant levels of support/resistance first and minor levels next. This helps reduce the chances of following a short-term trendline break while a major long-term level is lurking nearby.
A more objective indicator of whether a market is trending is the directional movement indicator system (DMI). Using the DMI removes the guesswork involved with spotting trends and can also provide confirmation of trends identified by trendline analysis. The DMI system is comprised of the ADX (average directional movement index) and the DI+ and DI- lines. The ADX is used to determine whether or not a market is trending (regardless if it's up or down), with a reading over 25 indicating a trending market and a reading below 20 indicating no trend. The ADX is also a measure of the strength of a trend – the higher the ADX, the stronger the trend. Using the ADX, traders can determine whether or not there is a trend and thus whether or not to use a trend following system.
As its name would suggest, the DMI system is best employed using both components. The DI+ and DI- lines are used as trade entry signals. A buy signal is generated when the DI+ line crosses up through the DI- line; a sell signal is generated when the DI- line crosses up through the DI+ line. (Wilder suggests using the "extreme point rule" to govern the DI+/DI- crossover signal. The rule states that when the DI+/- lines cross, traders should note the extreme point for that period in the direction of the crossover (the high if DI+ crosses up over DI-; the low if DI- crosses up over DI+). Only if that extreme point is breached in the subsequent period is a trade signal confirmed.
The ADX can then be used as an early indicator of the end/pause in a trend. When the ADX begins to move lower from its highest level, the trend is either pausing or ending, signaling it is time to exit the current position and wait for a fresh signal from the DI+/DI- crossover.
Non-trend Tools
Momentum oscillators, such as RSI, stochastics, or MACD, are a favorite indicator of many traders and their utility is best applied to non-trending or sideways markets. The primary use of momentum indicators is to gauge whether a market is overbought or oversold relative to prior periods, potentially highlighting a price reversal before it actually occurs.
However, this application fails in the case of a trending market, as the price momentum can remain overbought/oversold for many periods while the price continues to move persistently higher/lower in line with the underlying trend. The practical result is that traders who rely solely on a momentum indicator might exit a profitable position too soon based on momentum having reached an extreme level, just as a larger trend movement is developing. Even worse, some might use overbought/oversold levels to initiate positions in the opposite direction, seeking to anticipate a price reversal based on extreme momentum levels.
The second use of momentum oscillators is to spot divergences between price and momentum. The rationale with divergences is that sustained price movements should be mirrored by the underlying momentum. For example, a new high in price should be matched by a new high in momentum if the price action is to be considered valid. If a new price high occurs without momentum reaching new highs, a divergence (in this case, a bearish divergence) is said to exist. Divergences frequently play out with the price action failing to sustain its direction and reversing course in line with the momentum.
In real life, though, divergences frequently appear in trending markets as momentum wanes (the rate of change of prices slows) but prices fail to reverse significantly, maintaining the trend. The practical result is that counter-trend trades are frequently initiated based on price/momentum divergences. If the market is trending, prices will maintain their direction, though their rate of change is slower. Eventually, prices will accelerate in line with the trend and momentum will reverse again in the direction of the trend, nullifying the observed divergence in the process. As such, divergences can create many false signals that mislead traders who fail to recognize when a trend is in place.
"Forex traders” who “trade” the Forex through a dealing desk broker have no more access to the market than travelers who use the currency exchange counter at the airport to convert their country's currency to the currency of the country they are visiting or vice versa.
